It is a different year for the Phoenix Suns, yet the story is the same as it was in the pre-season last year. ESPN once again has the Phoenix Suns not making the playoffs despite their improbable run to the Western Conference finals.  The prediction of the “experts” going into last season was for the Suns to finish 9th in the West and not make the playoffs. My prediction seemed bold at the time as I predicted the Suns would take 5th in the West. Readers of this blog undoubtedly thought I was out of mind and being an avid Suns fan biased me beyond reproach. However, the Suns showed that with the right system and right coach (Alvin Gentry), they can be wildly successful. Perhaps the current prediction from ESPN that the Suns will finish 10th in the West is skewed due to the perception that losing Amare Stoudemire was a crushing blow to the organization. However, I am here to contend it was merely a glancing blow.

There is certainly no denying from that the loss of Stoudemire is devastating from an offensive standpoint. Stoudemire was 11th in the NBA last season in Player Efficiency Rating (PER) while scoring 23.1 PPG in a balanced Suns offensive attack. The part that the statistics fail to show is Stoudemire was the top option with the shot clock running down. Stoudemire’s ability to create his own shot and his chemistry with Steve Nash in the pick and roll will be sorely missed.

However, offense in basketball is only 50% of the game. Stoudemire’s defense to put it lightly was terrible. With his freakish athletic ability and sheer size should make 10 rebounds an automatic occurrence. However, Stoudemire only averaged 8.9 RPG during the regular season. Even worse, when the going gets tough in the playoffs, Stoudemire’s disappearing act on the defensive boards is exacerbated. Stoudemire only averaged 6.6 RPG in 2010 postseason. To put that in perspective, the ageless Grant Hill averaged 5.8 RPG in the postseason in 8 less minutes per game. 

Leandro Barbosa also was traded in the off-season to the Toronto Raptors to acquire Hedo Turkoglu. Barbosa never seemed to be able to take the step forward to be a star in this league. Last season, he was hampered by injuries in his shooting wrist. His major problem is the fact that he really does not have a true position. His passing ability prevents him from becoming a legitimate Point Guard, while his size and inability to defend prevents him from competing at Shooting Guard. Fans will certainly miss his blazing speed from an entertainment perspective, but from a basketball perspective not much will be lost.

The only other piece to last year’s puzzle that is gone is fan favorite Lou Amundson. Lou certainly brought intensity, rebounding and a legitimate shot blocker to the Suns. However, Amundson’s inability to shoot in the Suns run and gun system ultimately led to his departure.

Its not as if the Suns did nothing to re-load after losing Stoudemire, Barbosa and Amundson. The Suns picked up Hakim Warrick, Josh Childress, Hedo Turkoglu, and drafted Gani Lawal. Turkoglu, Warrick and Lawal will have the difficult task of trying to fill Stoudemire’s shoes. Lawal’s rebounding ability seems to rival that of Amundson and he likely will be able to fill that void with a greater upside. Turkoglu, seems to be on the downside of his career but he has expert ball handling skills and can still knock down 3 pointers. Additionally, playing with Steve Nash seems to revitalize careers (see Grant Hill). Perhaps the most important acquisition was Josh Childress and his fro. Childress formerly of the Atlanta Hawks spent last season in Greece playing for Olympiakos. Childress at 6’8″ has a sizeable wingspan and is a solid on the ball defender. His size allows him to cover both the 2 and 3 positions on the defensive end. Another aspect of Childress’ game that is an asset for the Suns is his rebounding ability. Childress, has twice averaged over six rebounds a game in the NBA.

By picking the Suns 10th in the Western Conference, the “experts” are forgetting that Steve Nash still runs the show here. The only time the Suns didn’t make the playoffs in Nash’s 2nd tenure was the year of the Shaqtus and Terry Porter. When Nash’s hands are not tied, his leadership, shooting ability, passing and passion for the game will lead the Suns to the playoffs regardless of the supporting cast.

I do anticipate the Suns will take a step back from the 3 seed in the Western Conference. However, the Suns will not miss the playoffs this season. I predict the Suns will take the 6th seed in the Western Conference and advance into the 2nd round of the playoffs. What do you think?